The Oscar Formula: The NBR/BFCA Nexus

Since the BFCA released a full top 10 in 2005, the comparison of its top 10 to that of the NBR has been a very good tool for predicting the Best Picture slate. 13 of the last 15 Best picture nominees have been in both top 10s. So we have an effective shortlist for this year

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Changeling
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
The Wrestler

I will strike Changeling from this list because of its falling below the "Ligne Chocolat" (Memoirs of a Geisha is precedent) and say that we have a very formidable top 7. In fact, I can't strike any more from the list.

Benjamin Button could hit very big and be very popular

I've already spouted about The Dark Knight, Wall-E, and Slumdog

Frost/Nixon has the reviews, keeps popping up, and is powered by a very popular performance

Ditto for The Wrestler. Either could fill the spot reserved for The Queen/Capote (less obvious film with powerful central perf)

And Milk just seems like the right film at the right time.

So how will we know which film will hit? We have to wait for the guilds, whom announce in early January.

The only film to be on both lists, get nearly unanimous guild support, and not get nominated was last year's Into the Wild. The two films not on both lists had a lock lead actor/actress winner and tremendous guild support.

The Globes, who announce on Thursday, will also be helpful in determining the BP slate.