Anatomy of an Upset: Precedented Comebacks

As we tick closer and closer to nomination (and inauguration) Tuesday, The big 5 seem locked into place, but there's always something lingering in the back of our heads: It's not going to go down the line is it? Of course it has been in the past. The past two years Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and Dreamgirls have all been upset, but in 2006 the guild concensus films were all affirmed with nods. Did we have the same inkling that year? I can tell you that we did. The question was: will Munich or Capote be left out and would it be replaced with Walk the Line, King Kong, or Cinderella Man? It was actually a rare prognosticator that picked the actual slate because we all thought: "There has to be an upset!" There didn't and this year there doesn't either.



In order to predict wether there will be an upset, one must have reason. Reasons are obvious in hindsight, but when applied beforehand prove problematic. One must look for a similar film in a similar circumstance in order to determine if a particular film has a chance. In Contention ran a poll of likely contenders for the upset prize and listed: Wall-E, Doubt, The Wrestler, The Reader, and Gran Torino. I added Revolutionary Road to this list as it is the only other film I could see surprising. Then I looked for films that fit this profile. I'll start with the films with the weakest case.



Gran Torino
Dark Horse rating: 2 (out of 10)
Precedent: Letters from Iwo Jima

This is as simple as Clint Eastwood and the Academy's love affair with him. I like Gran Torino and think that its story is moving and will play well with Clint's septegenarain set. However, I'm not sold on this link. Eastwood has had a hard time getting best actor nomination, clearly the films strongest case for Oscar. I think he's good for a nomination, but the film itself is not a true contender. The small scope, tiny cast of unknowns, and overall low production value don't help its chances. There is no film of this type (that I could find) that came from behind and surprised. If so, it would be the ultimate love letter to Clint, but I wouldn't bet on it.


The Reader
Dark Horse Rating: 4 (out of 10)
Precedent: The Accidental Tourist

When The Reader's two beloved and acclaimed producers died, they left quite a mess in terms of campaigning. Subsequently The Reader has not consistently appeared in Awards talk, but does pop up every now and again. Mostly the talk is of the criminally overlooked Ms. Winslet's performance. Besides that, The Reader has a Globe nomination for best picture and a USC scripter nomination. This resume is eerily similar to that of The Accidental Tourist. It has nothing else in common with the William Hurt and Geena Davis film, except the general awards portfolio to this point: Ignored by the Globes, on the awards periphery, strong supporting performance, awards-friendly cast. More a statement that such a head scratcher is possible.


Revolutionary Road
Dark Horse Rating: 5 (out of 10)
Precedent: Elizabeth

Again, the films do not have a whole lot in common. One is literary, the other historical. One has an enormously famous cast while the other was a cast of unknowns (at the time). But they do have in common the idea that a Golden Globe nomination can be enough to gain a nomination. They also have a very strong and visible female performance as a showcase. It also reminds me of Atonement's nomination last year. Revolutionary Road might be a film that appeals to the right demographic to slip in where it didn't elsewhere.


Doubt
Dark Horse Rating: 7 (out of 10)
Precedent: The Dresser

Doubt has much in common with The Dresser in scale. They're both chamber pieces, neither are considered to be exceptionally well-directed, and both rely on the strength of their acting. Obviously they diverge in theme, and also in the prestige of their cast, but a higher profile cast should only give Doubt an advantage that The Dresser did not enjoy. The Dresser also did not enjoy any fanfare before nominations were announced, much like Doubt which has received very little. The similarities are there, the question is: will the voters travel in the same pattern as they did in 83?


The Wrestler
Dark Horse Rating: 8 (out of 10)
Precedent: My Left Foot

While The Wrestler and My Left Foot share little in common thematically, they both have a stellar and memorable performance at their core. Day-Lewis' performance was a breakthrough while Rourke's is a comeback, but they both make their respective films and may elevate them in the eyes of voters.

Consider this as well: Rourke is the odds on favorite to win the award. Over the past 10 oscars, only 2 winners of Best Actor didn't come from a Best Picture nominee (Forrest Whitaker, Denzel Washington). So it happens, but it's rare. Something to consider.


Wall-E
Dark Horse Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Precedent: Several

I've made it no secret that I love this film and would love to see it nominated, but I actually quite like its chances. Here are some of the reasons.

The separate category for animated film is problematic, but the fairly recent nominations of Life Is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon despite a foreign film category for which they were both elligible proves that this is not an insuperable barrier.

The obvious precedent Beauty and the Beast proves that an animated film has been and can be nominated if it is the right film at the right time.

And the Strongest Precedent is:

BABE - A child focused, environmentally conscious film about a scrappy hero who transcends his given station and its barriers in order to make the world (or the farm) a better place. Sound familiar?

Babe had critical support, much as Wall-E has but had little to no show of support from the guilds before the nominations were announced.

And let's get on to the fact that all of the current precursors have ruled Wall-E out of the competition so far. It hasn't been nominated for the Globes Best Comedy because it can only be nominated in the animated section. Because it is an animated film, the acting, direction, (here's where it gets ridiculous) WRITING and PRODUCING cannot be nominated for the main award. Inexplicable as it is, the Oscars will be Wall-E's first true test against the rest of this Best Picture field. We'll find out in a couple of days, but I wouldn't count him out by any stretch of the imagination.