The PGA was just announced with the following nominees
Frost Nixon
Benjamin Button
Milk
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
These films have all the makings of favorites but history tells us that at least one of these films will not make it to Oscar sunday in contention for the big prize. But who?
The past answers many mysteries. Here are five films that may show us which film will be left at the alter this year in order of shock value.
#5 Avalon
Believe it or not, the much maligned Godfather III was nominated for Best Picture and it beat out prior Oscar champ Barry Levinson’s personal and beautifully shot film. A complete snub at the BAFTAs was the only indicator that this film would be left out of the final five.
Who could be this year’s Avalon?
Frost/Nixon – Too traditional, boring, safe etc.
#4 Leaving Las Vegas
This was a bleak film that many felt was the highest artistic achievement of 1995, mostly because of Nicolas Cage’s performance. It became a legitimate contender when both the Golden Globes and Director’s Guild endorsed it. It was also rare that the Best Actor favorite would not have a Best Picture film as a vehicle. This film’s credentials don’t look immensely impressive on their own, but if you look at the tiny resumes of Il Postino and Babe, both of which beat Leaving Las Vegas for a Best Picture Nomination, it is more of a shock. It can only be concluded that the film’s subject matter was too gritty, too unsettling to be awarded.
Who could be this year’s Leaving Las Vegas?
The Dark Knight – Very bleak and cynical about human nature, might not fit with the hopeful theme. Lack of awards “prestige” also hurts.
#3 Thelma & Louise
This film has since become a cultural reference much as Brokeback Mountain was in '06. At the time the big debate was whether Geena Davis or Susan Sarandon more deserved the Best Actress Award. With laud being tossed at director Ridley Scott and screenwriter Callie Khouri as well as the two leads a nomination seemed given. And then it was snubbed in favor of Beauty and the Beast, an unprecedented nomination for an animated film. Perhaps Oscar wanted to avoid more controversy with JFK already on the slate and what better way than by replacing a violent feminist movie with a wildly popular animated film.
What could be this year’s Thelma and Louise?
Milk – avoid political controversy, don't risk alienating middle america, embrace the joyful, happy theme.
#2 Cold Mountain/Dreamgirls
With three time Oscar winning producer Saul Zaentz, the funding and aggression of the Weinsteins and Miramax behind it, this film from previous Oscar champ Anthony Minghella was an early favorite to challenge Return of the King for Best Picture. They sought out three of the hottest actors at the time. The Golden Globes came out in strong support with eight nominations. The BAFTAs gave them 13 nominations. And the Producer’s, Writers, and Screen Actor’s guilds all nominated Cold Mountain. There was a key miss with the Director’s Guild, but the general accord among predictors was that either Master and Commander or Lost In Translation (most likely the latter) would be shut out of the BP race in favor of Cold Mountain. As a past example, they used Being John Malkovich’s failure to win out over more traditional oscar faire. Instead the Best Picture race followed the Director’s guild exactly, leaving out Cold Mountain despite seven nominations in other categories. It proved that Oscar nominations are not determined on paper.
Ditto for Dreamgirls two years ago. Everything seemed perfect and lined up, but something was just a little too perfect, too set in stone. The voters turned on the film and it was shut out
Who could be this year’s Cold Mountain or Dreamgirls?
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Seems like a perfect oscar film with the right cast, skill behind the camera and deep pocketed campaign, but something in the epic romance might leave the voters feeling a bit cold…
#1 Almost Famous
When Cameron Crowe’s bittersweet semi-autobiographical film was released, Crowe was still riding the waves of Jerry Maguire and was met with a host of raves from the critics. Some would call it Crowe’s masterpiece. It sported a top-notch, though not particularly well known, cast, and brilliantly captured the 1970’s road music scene. It was also a coming out party for Kate Hudson whose performance not only created buzz of a nomination, but of a win.
Dreamworks launched a campaign similar to the one that had propelled American Beauty to the Oscar podium at the previous ceremony. Unfortunately their marketing campaign didn’t lead to large ticket sales, but few thought that it would hurt Almost Famous’s chances of garnering a Best Picture nomination. The Globes were very kind to Crowe’s film, granting him four nominations and two wins (one for Hudson, one for Best Picture) then the Globes all unanimously endorsed the film, and the BAFTAs followed suit with six nominations. It seemed certain that Almost Famous would be a contender on Oscar Sunday and maybe a darkhorse winner. And then the nominations were announced and it was obvious that Crowe’s film would be overshadowed by the love fest for Steven Soderbergh. Almost Famous did net four nominations and a win for screenplay, but how a film with this resume was snubbed is almost beyond explanation.
This is a nightmare story for the producers of all five BP favorites. Almost Famous despite its traditional coming of age genre, and impressive Oscar portfolio was shut out of the Best Picture race. It just goes to show that nobody is safe from the big bad snub.
Who could be this year’s Almost Famous?
Slumdog Millionaire – Yes it can happen. A film that is favored to win the whole shebang can be abandoned after a promising campaign. It can run out of steam at the end despite breakthrough performances and overdue directors. Those hailing the film as a modern masterpiece may turn off viewers who haven’t seen it yet by creating unrealistic expectations. I'm not saying it will happen, but it could...
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3 comments:
I take exception to you calling Frost/Nixon boring and safe. The documentary-type narrative structure and the fact that Howard turns an interview into a boxing match is not exactly innovative, but it's also far from safe or boring. Casting a bunch of fringe stars in the leads? This is as far from safe as Ron Howard has ever been! I think Button (aka Forrest Gump Redux) and Milk are far more "safe" than Frost/Nixon.
Even more untraditional and unsafe is the ambiguity with which Howard and Morgan treat their characters. Unlike Doubt or The Dark Knight where characters are compelling, but ultimately one-dimensional, Morgan and Howard give their characters some depth, especially the titular characters.
If anything, I'd put F/N under the Thelma and Louis category, Milk in the Cold Mountain category and Slumdog into the Avalon category.
Of course...I think all three will be nominated for best picture, so...maybe they don't belong in any category.
I speak out of ignorance in terms of Frost/Nixon but it's mystique is certainly in the traditional/old-school films. It's a film about an American president directed by Ron Howard... just saying.
It's not really as much about the president as it is about the interview and its implications, ramifications and consequences.
Even if it is safe (which I only partially agree with), it's still a very good movie, probably his best since Apollo 13. Certainly his most experimental. Watching it, it doesn't seem like a Ron Howard movie. Trust me, I have as many issues with Ron Howard as anybody, but I think this is the beginning of a big upswing for his career. Unless Angels and Demons is less interesting than the trailers make it look.
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