The Oscar Formula: Follow the Money

The Dark Knight will be nominated for Best Picture.



It's not a particularly bold statement but some doubt has been cast upon its award hopes. There are all the usual hangups assosciated with a comic book movie, espescially a franchise that was nearly ruined by Joel Schumaker. There is a backlash to its immense popularity. The buzz around it has been relatively quiet. But don't fool yourselves, TDK will be there on Oscar Sunday. Money never lies.



A shrewd awards watcher might point out that The Academy has been trending away from big moneymakers to smaller films released by sattelite companies. This is quite true, but that still does not negate the inevitability of Batman's presence at the Oscars.



Here are the facts



- From 1990 all the way to 2003, one of the top five grossing films of the year was nominated for best picture.



- When Brokeback Mountain made under 100 million domestic and was the highest grossing Best Picture nominee, it was the first time that happened in 20 years.



So this less monetary focused Oscars could simply be a trend that could be broken in favor of longstanding traditions. But even if it's not, the highest grossing films of the past four years have averaged $115 million and have been at least the 22nd most successful films of their year. If The Dark Knight is not going to be your top grosser, then who is?



Tell me which of the following films you could see breaking 100 million.



-Benjamin Button

- Milk

- Frost/Nixon

- Slumdog Millionaire

- Gran Torino

- Rachel Getting Married

- Revolutionary Road

- The Reader

- The Wrestler



I see only two REMOTE possibilities. Slumdog could catch on, but I don't see it cracking the century mark. Benjamin Button has the wattage and the fanboy hype, but I don't see the broad BO appeal. And then what are we left with? Are Frank Langella and Michael Sheen going to sell a movie to the general public? Is Milk going to outgain Brokeback? Is Gran Torino going to outgain Million Dollar Baby? The Reader is too distant, Revolutionary Road too depressing, ditto The Wrestler, and Rachel Getting Married has been out for weeks and is languishing.



And don't forget that the Oscar telecast has been not-so-slowly declining in ratings since it went smaller. Oscar is in need of a big film. One the general public has seen in droves and approves of highly. One that has broken longstanding records. One that has sparked a pop culture and counter culture phenomenon. One the critics adore and generally agree was of good quality. One that has that wow factor that will give people a rooting interest in watching the Oscars. One that will get morons like the two Peters on Shootout to shut up about "Small depressing films no-one has seen" being nominated for Best Picture. Who will answer that call?

Bet on it

Contender Profile: The Dark Knight

The Dark Knight
Directed by Christopher Nolan



Broad Appeal: 94
Perceived Quality: 82





Mini-Review: Yeah, it's the best comic book film ever, but it's more. It's the movie event of the year, and one of the best reviewed and with the most buzzed performance. Less pulpy and more substantive than Batman Begins, this is a rather sober meditation on authority, society, and terrorism wrapped into a satisfying action formula. It's not the best film of the year, but you have to admire its ability to probe and entertain at the same time.



Awards Chances: It's more than a dark horse for Best Picture, this film is simply too big to ignore. Add to this the record box office returns, the emotional support for Ledger, and the fact that several contenders have deferred to next year or foundered with critics and a best picture nomination seems more likely than unlikely. Ledger appears to be a lock for Supporting Actor, and look for a slew of technical nominations even if TDK misses the best picture nomination.