The Oscar Formula: 6 things we know after the NBR Awards

The NBR is one of my favorite awards, if for no other reason than they are the first significant precursor. The awards picture just got much clearer, and here's what the numbers tell us.

1) Slumdog Millionaire will be nominated for Best Picture.
I feel confident in saying that without equivocation. An NBR win does not guarantee a nomination... but Slumdog was already a prohibitive nomination frontrunner and the statistics support that. The winner of the NBR has received a Nomination for best picture 19 out of the last 21 times. The odds of a win are up in the air. As of last year NBR hadn't predicted a winner since 1999, but it could be trending toward picking the winner. I'm not ready to call it either way.

2)Clint Eastwood will be nominated for Best Actor, and might win
The best actor stats for the NBR are even more impressive if anything. They had a bad run from 2001-2 with failed endorsements of Billy Bob Thornton and Campbell Scott, but every other winner has gone on to a nomination going all the way back to 1986. Of those 20, 9 went on to win best actor. We all know the academy loves them some Clint, and it looks like he's an even money bet to take home the trophy.

3) Anne Hathaway will be nominated for Best Actress, and will lose
NBR winners of the Best Actress awards are sure bets for a nomination. One has to go back to 1990 to arrive at an NBR winner that missed a nomination. However, only 4 of the last 15 have won. And if you want a trend, only one of the last five have won, and that was Helen Mirren in full juggernaut mode.

4) Josh Brolin will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and will lose
Starting from 1979, every film year ending in 9, the NBR Best Supporting Actor does not get an oscar nod. Every other year they do. That's 3 out of the last 29 (Alan Alda, P.S. Hoffman and Paul Dooley being the snubees) of those 27 only 5 have won and none have won in the past 5 years. Add to this the smell test of Brolin beating out Ledger and I'd say it will be a pleasure for Mr. Brolin just to be nominated. I also feel bad for the poor sap who wins next year's NBR Best Supporting Actor.

5) Penelope Cruz will not win Best Supporting Actress, might not be nominated

Easy statistics here. The NBR has whiffed on the past 11 winners of the Best Supporting Actress category. The NBR is trending better in this category as 4 of the past 6 winners have been nominated for an oscar. While 4 out of 6 looks good for Penelope, one must also consider that if you extend the years it becomes only 4 of the last 11.

6) Fincher and Benjamin Button will probably NOT get nominations.

Fincher's win brings about the most interesting statistic: it may hurt his chances and the chances of his film. Only 3 of the last 10 NBR Best Director winners have been nominated for Best Director. And only 4 of them have had their film nominated for best Picture (in 98, Elizabeth was nommed, Shekar Kapur was not) I will not call them out of contention for several reasons, not the least of which is the absurdity of downgrading a film due to its success. But if it gets no other help like Burton did last year, or Mann did in 2004 etc. then I would tell Fincher and his fanboy legions to worry quite a great deal.