The Oscar Formula: Ranking the NBR's Top 10 (which goes all the way up to 11)

Another great thing the NBR gives is their top 10 which sets up a possible Oscar paradigm from which we usually get around 4 nominees for best picture. Over the last 20 years, here's how the NBR's Top Ten has fared at predicting the Oscars

40% Top 10 contains 4 Best Picture Nominees
25% Top 10 contains All Best Picture Nominees
25% Top 10 contains only 2 Best Picture Nominees
10% Top 10 contains 3 Best Picture Nominees


So we can be fairly certain that 2-4 nominees will be taken out of this group. The question remains which ones? We can place the winner Slumdog Millionaire at the top without worry. Only 3 of the past 20 NBR winners have missed and Slumdog seems a strong contender. However that's the only one we can place in the running and not worry about.

Next lets eliminate the pretenders from this list. Changeling has fallen below the "Ligne Chocolat" and therefore can be readily dismissed. The early reviews are lukewarm on Defiance (even the positive ones) and the NBR has shown a pro-Ed Zwick bias in the past that hasn't panned out with Oscar(Blood Diamond, The Last Samurai, Glory) so I'm ready to put that one to bed. While I am absolutely in love with Wall-E, one must distance one's self and realize that no Animated movie will be nominated without a groundswell the breaks the richter scale. So, it's out too. While I enjoyed Burn After Reading, it wasn't strong enough to break through that Academy backlash that goes with "having your year" as the Coens did last year.

So we have our #1 and our bottom 4, which leaves us with 6 left (what? I thought it was a top 10? Those sneaky NBR guys!) Of those 6, The Wrestler seems to have the least chance. That's just a judgement call and not based on anything statistical, so take it as you will.

7 of the last 10 films that had a a best actor win and a top ten appearance (and whose actor wasn't winning for dual performances, including dual perfs it's 9 out of 16) have gone on to a best picture nomination. That makes things look pretty rosy for Gran Torino, although I'm still not a full believer.

6 of the last 10 films with a best supporting actor win and top 10 appearence have gone on to a best picture nomination, which helps Milk.

Benjamin Button's numbers are too contradictory to say anything. The long term stats for best director winners are very good (9 of 15) but the recent trend is very bad (2 of 6), so where does that leave monseur Button? Somewhere in the middle.

I have a good amount of confidence in The Dark Knight for several reasons, several of which will be covered in a later column.

Frost/Nixon is still a mystery.

So here is the top 10 (or, you know, 11) as I see it

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. The Dark Knight
4. Gran Torino
5. Frost/Nixon
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7. The Wrestler
8. Wall-E
9. Defiance
10. Burn After Reading
11. Changeling

Key- Bold and Underlined- Lock
Underlined- likely
italics - unlikely

So, if four of the 11 are going to make it, where is the other nominee going to come from? More on that tomorrow!