Red Carpet Bias and The Golden Grain of Salt

In terms of the best picture and acting contests, the Globes have been a decently accurate outfit, although with one pronounced bias: fame. Moreso than any awards (not decided by the general public) The Globes want celebrities on their red carpet wearing Vera Wang. The point is, when they miss, they err on the side of celebrity.

Last year they traded actual nominee Tommy Lee Jones for Denzel Washington (and young hotness James MacAvoy), Hal Holbrook for John Travolta, and Ruby Dee for Julia Roberts. This is not an isolated incident. The year before Ryan Gosling was swapped for a second helping of DiCaprio, and (winner!)Alan Arkin, Djimon Honsou, and Jackie Earle Haley languished while hollywood royalty by the name of Pitt, Nicholson, and Affleck were nominated. It goes back quite a long way.

Also, look at the list of films they've missed in fairly recent years

Letters From Iwo Jima
Crash
Capote
Munich
Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
The Sixth Sense
The Cider House Rules
The Thin Red Line
Life Is Beautiful

All of them smaller features that have no bankable central star, EXCEPT for The Sixth Sense. I think the Sixth Sense snub speaks well for The Dark Knight's chances because it shows the Globes also like the glamor and allure of Oscar baity features. The Sixth Sense and The Dark Knight are both immensely popular films but without that "oscar" allure. The Academy didn't seem to care about the Sixth Sense and I believe will not care about The Dark Knight's either. Maybe Revolutionary Road and The Reader's boost is a bit inflated.

Either way, Don't go overboard on anything involving Revolutionary Road, The Reader, or really Benjamin Button (although I am now convinced it will be nominated).

Big help to Happy-Go-Lucky and Sally Hawkins by the nearly empty Comedy category.

Since 2005 the Globes have not been extremely accurate and I think we can all see where the Oscars and the Globes diverge.