Profiling Best Actress

Here's the second in my continuing series. Just as we create profiles for killers and the like: so shall I create a profile for winners so that we may make more informed decisions come Oscar time. Next up is Best Actress. This race is usually pretty cut and dried with little drama attatched, and this year is not very different. If we're lucky the Globes and SAGs offer enough of a split that we can call it a race. This year, it looks like Winslet vs. Streep. A modern day Deborah Kerr (nominated and respected, but always losing the award) versus a modern day Bette Davis (won two Oscars so early that her exceptional work later in life has gone unrewarded). The rest of the field don't seem to have much of a shot, but let's take a look at the metrics to see if there's a dark horse we are sleeping on.

PROFILE OF A BEST ACTRESS WINNER

- Age ranges between 21 and 80, however it is extremely likely that the subject is in her 30s. This has proven true in 25 of the past 50 cases. It is equally unlikely that the subject is over 50, as this is only true in 6 of the last 50 cases. In fact, only one actress in the history of the Oscars has won a Best Actress statuette while in her 50s: Shirley Booth. Why is this significant? Meryl Streep, a major contender, is 59. Out of 81 prior winners, she would only be the second. Oh and Kate Winslet, the other major contender, is 33.

Analysis: Big edge to Kate and Angie, big blow to Meryl.

- Subject is more often than not a prior nominee, but not overwhelmingly. Since the '00 ceremony, it has been a yo-yo match whether the winner was prior nominee. Swank wasn't, Roberts was, Berry wasn't, Kidman was, Theron wasn't, Swank was, Witherspoon wasn't, Mirren was, Cotillard wasn't... and with prior nominees Streep and Winslet as the main contenders it looks like this bizzarre trend will continue. Streep's past wins do not hurt her much, if at all. Voters seem far likelier to give multiple wins to Best Actress candidates than Best Actor candidates. Only 8 actors have won multiple Best Actor awards and all of them have won only two. Katherine Hepburn has 4, and eleven other actresses have won 2 (Swank, Foster, Field, Fonda, (Glenda) Jackson, Taylor, Bergman, Leigh, De Havilland, Davis, and Rainer). Also take into account that the win happened 26 years ago and she has been nominated for best actress 9 times since that win. That said, most Best Actress winners have been nominated before but have not won by a 2 to 1 margin, so while Meryl's wins aren't a hindrance, Winslet still comes out on top in this stat.

Analysis: Slight edge to Meryl, Kate and Angie. Meryl's prior wins don't hurt, but Kate's lack of a win is better.

- Subject is more likely to be in a film nominated for Best Picture. A similar bizarre back and forth trend exists here as with prior nominees over the same period of time. Cotillard's film was not nominated, Mirrien's was, Witherspoon's wasn't, Swank's was etc. This could either continue with a Winslet win, or broken by a win for any other nominee.

Analysis: Numbers and trend support a Winslet victory.

- 69 of the total 81 winners have played fictional characters. However, 5 of the last 6 have been based on real people. So we have a strong trend going against an incredibly powerful overall total. With only Angelina Jolie playing a true character, look for the trend to fall.

Analysis: Trend says Jolie wins, Overall numbers say she has no chance. Go with the overall numbers.

-10 of the past 12 Best actress winners have come from screenplays not adapted from other sources. The overall numbers are not as emphatic, but do endorse the original screenplay bias. With Winslet and Streep as the frontrunners in adapted material, an upset could be in the works.

Analysis: Upset seems more likely given this powerful trend

- only 5 of the past 50 winners play characters who die during the course of the film. This stat only affects one actress: the favorite Ms. Winslet. However, 4 of those cases have come in the past 9 years... still, this is not good news for Kate fans.

Analysis: Overall numbers savage Kate's chances, trend slightly mitigates the damage.

-Glenda Jackson was the Best Actress winner for a film in which she is nude. Since then, 10 others have also won for films in which they appear nude (Jane Fonda twice). That's only 11 of 28 (46%) during this period which is not a heartening statistic. It only gets worse from there. since those 11 are the only 11, that gives it a paltry overall number (14%) and the current trend runs against nudity as the last 4 winners won for films in which they were not nude. Bad news for the very naked Ms. Winslet.

Analysis: Winslet's nudity hurts her chances.

- Over the 14 year existence of the SAG Best Female Actor in a Leading Role, Either the Globes or the SAG award has correctly predicted the winner. This year SAG chose Streep while the Globes chose Winslet and Hawkins. Hawkins was not nominated, so an upset win would be completely unprecedented and is unlikely. Over that span, the Globes and SAGs have gone what I call "head to head" a total of five times. By this I mean the SAG awards chose as their winner a person who lost their Golden Globe category. (They do not include examples like last year where the SAG merely endorsed the wrong Golden Globe winner) The SAG has won 3 of these match ups to the Globes 2, thus giving it a slight edge.

And then there's the troublesome fact that Ms. Winslet has switched categories. The SAG has had a winner switch categories and still win the Oscar (Benicio Del Toro switched from lead to supporting) and the Globes have as well (Maggie Smith won Lead in a Musical Comedy Globe, but won supporting actress Oscar). However Winslet is switching the opposite way; from supporting to lead. This has happened only once: Patricia Neal for Hud in 1963. She was nominated for supporting actress at the Globes, but ended up winning a Best Actress Oscar. So a Winslet win, while irregular, would not be unprecedented.

Analysis: An upset looks almost impossible, Winslet or Streep will win. The SAG preference and the fact that Winslet is switching categories both point toward a Streep victory.


Overall Analysis: The numbers don't point in either direction emphatically, Winslet is the right age, a prior nominee, and in a Best Picture film. However there are certain other factors that seem to hinder her progress... Streep is a presence here, and cannot be ignored. A Streep upset would not surprise me, but make no mistake this is Winslet's to lose. Her double win on Globe night, her continued success for this performance, the highly motivated campaign behind her, and the sentiment that this is "her year" would need a mountain of stats to overcome. Since the stats point in both directions, go with Winslet.

My take on their chances:
Winslet 66%
Streep 33%
Hathaway .5%
Leo .5%
Jolie - OUT OF CONTENTION