The Oscar Formula: Profiling the Best Actors

Just as Will Graham, Clarice Starling, and... you know, real investigators do with serial killers, so shall I do with the winners of the Best Actor award. These are statistics, and should not be confused with actual analysis, but should inform analysis.

Winning a strong precursor like a Golden Globe or SAG is the strongest factor here, so we know this race is probably between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn with Frank Langella as a possible upset pick. That's the state of the race as common sense dictates, now lets see what the numbers say


PROFILE OF A BEST ACTOR WINNER

- Age can range from 29 to 76, but most often a man in his mid-forties. (edge to Penn and Pitt)
- Subject is most likely a previous nominee, however this factor has trended in the opposite direction in recent years. If subject is a previous nominee he most likely has not won an Oscar for acting (Bad news for Penn, good news for Pitt)
- Subject has most likely been nominated for his work in a film that has been nominated for Best Picture (edge to Penn, as well as Pitt and Langella)
- Contrary to popular belief, subject is most likely NOT playing a real or historical figure, though a recent trend drifts the other way (Good news for Rourke, Jenkins, and Pitt)
- A recent trend suggests that an actor in a film whose screenplay is considered "adapted" has an advantage (favors Langella and Pitt)
- The character played by the Subject most likely does not die during the course of the film (Edge to Langella, Jenkins, and, depending on your interpretation, Rourke)
- If the Golden Globes and SAG awards for Best Actor do not match, then the slight edge goes to the winner of the SAG award. The Golden Globes won the last SAG/GG showdown in 2004, but SAG won the other two. It has also happened that both the SAG and Globes have picked different contenders, but BOTH were wrong.

The numbers have Pitt as a strong contender, but we know better than that. They really point towards Sean Penn... but I have to say that I'm still casting my lot with Mickey Rourke. I think he has the "It" factor, that thing that transcends stats... Either way, Best Actress is next.