Profiling Best Actress

Here's the second in my continuing series. Just as we create profiles for killers and the like: so shall I create a profile for winners so that we may make more informed decisions come Oscar time. Next up is Best Actress. This race is usually pretty cut and dried with little drama attatched, and this year is not very different. If we're lucky the Globes and SAGs offer enough of a split that we can call it a race. This year, it looks like Winslet vs. Streep. A modern day Deborah Kerr (nominated and respected, but always losing the award) versus a modern day Bette Davis (won two Oscars so early that her exceptional work later in life has gone unrewarded). The rest of the field don't seem to have much of a shot, but let's take a look at the metrics to see if there's a dark horse we are sleeping on.

PROFILE OF A BEST ACTRESS WINNER

- Age ranges between 21 and 80, however it is extremely likely that the subject is in her 30s. This has proven true in 25 of the past 50 cases. It is equally unlikely that the subject is over 50, as this is only true in 6 of the last 50 cases. In fact, only one actress in the history of the Oscars has won a Best Actress statuette while in her 50s: Shirley Booth. Why is this significant? Meryl Streep, a major contender, is 59. Out of 81 prior winners, she would only be the second. Oh and Kate Winslet, the other major contender, is 33.

Analysis: Big edge to Kate and Angie, big blow to Meryl.

- Subject is more often than not a prior nominee, but not overwhelmingly. Since the '00 ceremony, it has been a yo-yo match whether the winner was prior nominee. Swank wasn't, Roberts was, Berry wasn't, Kidman was, Theron wasn't, Swank was, Witherspoon wasn't, Mirren was, Cotillard wasn't... and with prior nominees Streep and Winslet as the main contenders it looks like this bizzarre trend will continue. Streep's past wins do not hurt her much, if at all. Voters seem far likelier to give multiple wins to Best Actress candidates than Best Actor candidates. Only 8 actors have won multiple Best Actor awards and all of them have won only two. Katherine Hepburn has 4, and eleven other actresses have won 2 (Swank, Foster, Field, Fonda, (Glenda) Jackson, Taylor, Bergman, Leigh, De Havilland, Davis, and Rainer). Also take into account that the win happened 26 years ago and she has been nominated for best actress 9 times since that win. That said, most Best Actress winners have been nominated before but have not won by a 2 to 1 margin, so while Meryl's wins aren't a hindrance, Winslet still comes out on top in this stat.

Analysis: Slight edge to Meryl, Kate and Angie. Meryl's prior wins don't hurt, but Kate's lack of a win is better.

- Subject is more likely to be in a film nominated for Best Picture. A similar bizarre back and forth trend exists here as with prior nominees over the same period of time. Cotillard's film was not nominated, Mirrien's was, Witherspoon's wasn't, Swank's was etc. This could either continue with a Winslet win, or broken by a win for any other nominee.

Analysis: Numbers and trend support a Winslet victory.

- 69 of the total 81 winners have played fictional characters. However, 5 of the last 6 have been based on real people. So we have a strong trend going against an incredibly powerful overall total. With only Angelina Jolie playing a true character, look for the trend to fall.

Analysis: Trend says Jolie wins, Overall numbers say she has no chance. Go with the overall numbers.

-10 of the past 12 Best actress winners have come from screenplays not adapted from other sources. The overall numbers are not as emphatic, but do endorse the original screenplay bias. With Winslet and Streep as the frontrunners in adapted material, an upset could be in the works.

Analysis: Upset seems more likely given this powerful trend

- only 5 of the past 50 winners play characters who die during the course of the film. This stat only affects one actress: the favorite Ms. Winslet. However, 4 of those cases have come in the past 9 years... still, this is not good news for Kate fans.

Analysis: Overall numbers savage Kate's chances, trend slightly mitigates the damage.

-Glenda Jackson was the Best Actress winner for a film in which she is nude. Since then, 10 others have also won for films in which they appear nude (Jane Fonda twice). That's only 11 of 28 (46%) during this period which is not a heartening statistic. It only gets worse from there. since those 11 are the only 11, that gives it a paltry overall number (14%) and the current trend runs against nudity as the last 4 winners won for films in which they were not nude. Bad news for the very naked Ms. Winslet.

Analysis: Winslet's nudity hurts her chances.

- Over the 14 year existence of the SAG Best Female Actor in a Leading Role, Either the Globes or the SAG award has correctly predicted the winner. This year SAG chose Streep while the Globes chose Winslet and Hawkins. Hawkins was not nominated, so an upset win would be completely unprecedented and is unlikely. Over that span, the Globes and SAGs have gone what I call "head to head" a total of five times. By this I mean the SAG awards chose as their winner a person who lost their Golden Globe category. (They do not include examples like last year where the SAG merely endorsed the wrong Golden Globe winner) The SAG has won 3 of these match ups to the Globes 2, thus giving it a slight edge.

And then there's the troublesome fact that Ms. Winslet has switched categories. The SAG has had a winner switch categories and still win the Oscar (Benicio Del Toro switched from lead to supporting) and the Globes have as well (Maggie Smith won Lead in a Musical Comedy Globe, but won supporting actress Oscar). However Winslet is switching the opposite way; from supporting to lead. This has happened only once: Patricia Neal for Hud in 1963. She was nominated for supporting actress at the Globes, but ended up winning a Best Actress Oscar. So a Winslet win, while irregular, would not be unprecedented.

Analysis: An upset looks almost impossible, Winslet or Streep will win. The SAG preference and the fact that Winslet is switching categories both point toward a Streep victory.


Overall Analysis: The numbers don't point in either direction emphatically, Winslet is the right age, a prior nominee, and in a Best Picture film. However there are certain other factors that seem to hinder her progress... Streep is a presence here, and cannot be ignored. A Streep upset would not surprise me, but make no mistake this is Winslet's to lose. Her double win on Globe night, her continued success for this performance, the highly motivated campaign behind her, and the sentiment that this is "her year" would need a mountain of stats to overcome. Since the stats point in both directions, go with Winslet.

My take on their chances:
Winslet 66%
Streep 33%
Hathaway .5%
Leo .5%
Jolie - OUT OF CONTENTION

The Oscar Formula: Profiling the Best Actors

Just as Will Graham, Clarice Starling, and... you know, real investigators do with serial killers, so shall I do with the winners of the Best Actor award. These are statistics, and should not be confused with actual analysis, but should inform analysis.

Winning a strong precursor like a Golden Globe or SAG is the strongest factor here, so we know this race is probably between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn with Frank Langella as a possible upset pick. That's the state of the race as common sense dictates, now lets see what the numbers say


PROFILE OF A BEST ACTOR WINNER

- Age can range from 29 to 76, but most often a man in his mid-forties. (edge to Penn and Pitt)
- Subject is most likely a previous nominee, however this factor has trended in the opposite direction in recent years. If subject is a previous nominee he most likely has not won an Oscar for acting (Bad news for Penn, good news for Pitt)
- Subject has most likely been nominated for his work in a film that has been nominated for Best Picture (edge to Penn, as well as Pitt and Langella)
- Contrary to popular belief, subject is most likely NOT playing a real or historical figure, though a recent trend drifts the other way (Good news for Rourke, Jenkins, and Pitt)
- A recent trend suggests that an actor in a film whose screenplay is considered "adapted" has an advantage (favors Langella and Pitt)
- The character played by the Subject most likely does not die during the course of the film (Edge to Langella, Jenkins, and, depending on your interpretation, Rourke)
- If the Golden Globes and SAG awards for Best Actor do not match, then the slight edge goes to the winner of the SAG award. The Golden Globes won the last SAG/GG showdown in 2004, but SAG won the other two. It has also happened that both the SAG and Globes have picked different contenders, but BOTH were wrong.

The numbers have Pitt as a strong contender, but we know better than that. They really point towards Sean Penn... but I have to say that I'm still casting my lot with Mickey Rourke. I think he has the "It" factor, that thing that transcends stats... Either way, Best Actress is next.

Oscar Nominations: Epic Fail

S0, this year's nominations have left several people disturbed. Where's the support for The Dark Knight? Why wasn't critical darling Wall-E rewarded with a nod? But this didn't just start with the nominations. Several people have indicated that this year was a very weak year for the overall quality of the nominees. I tend to agree, but it's even worse than that. In an already weak year, I believe the Academy has passed over several deserving films to reward a lineup of usual suspects: Period Romances and Biopics. Of course you have to have one feel-good indie type to add just enough spice to make the smell of studio control and cronyism dissapate. This is the first year that I can remember when I can't think of a single film I'm rooting for.

Here's how I rate this year's films, one by one.

The Reader - Mismanaged second act and tepid, sanctimonious third act make this an embarassing choice for Best Picture. The acting is fine, but Hare's script is clumsy and Daldry's directing loses its way quite often. Winslet is a supporting actress, not a lead and should really hope that Harvey Weinstein hasn't painted her into a corner on the road to getting her an Oscar win.

Rating: 5/10



Frost/Nixon - A capable director and great cast take on some bad history. Who can forget the colossal importance of the David Frost interviews on the reputation of Richard Nixon? That'd be just about everyone, becuase it wasn't half as important as this film pretends it is. Peter Morgan does a nice job of pumping up the stakes and fitting the interviews into a neat three act structure that is entertaining but rings so false.

Side Note: After Nixon makes his obviously fictional "you and I are actually quite similar" phone call, and Frost decides to... you know, do his job and research for the final interview, do you imagine "Gonna Fly Now" or "Eye of the Tiger" playing in the background? I vote for Joe Ventoso's legendary "The Best Around" from The Karate Kid.

Rating: 6/10



Slumdog Millionaire - I've already been heard on this subject, begins very well and just collapses at the end. Those who love this film seem to forget that stories are about people and people are more complicated than this. Lateeka may as well be a blow up doll at the end for all the depth she is given. But I guess if you like films where women are glorified prizes to be won by the male hero at the end, then this is just... stellar stuff.

Rating: 6/10



Milk - I admire the craft that went into this film, and it does a wonderful job of telling an emotional story without getting preachy. But ultimately, this prize isn't about good, it's about great. It's about unforgettable. Sean Penn plays Harvey Milk brilliantly, but I never really got to know him. Harvey Milk, as he is in this film, never changes or adapts. He grows a beard and later shaves it off, but there is no arc to his story. We see his slow building success, but the reasons for his success are all external. In fact all of the complications are also external For all the love and care that went into this film, it doesn't tell you anything a documentary couldn't about the events of Harvey Milk's life. And that's what this film is, real people imitating history, not revealing the true human behind the legend. This film never really moved me, despite the terribly tragic events that transpire...

Rating: 7/10


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - This is, in my opinion, the best of the bunch. That is a very sad statement for me to make because Eric Roth's narrative is a complete mess. He and Fincher are never in control of what could be an endlessly fascinating complication. Benjamin Button is less a cohesive arc and more of a collection of interesting short stories barely strung together. What elevates this film is the incredible craft behind and in front of the camera. Working together, these artists create some sublime moments... but looking back on them they just don't amount to much

Rating: 8/10

Not much to cheer about. I'm still having an Oscar Party, but it'll be lest festive I think.

Oscar Nominations

Best Picture
Frost/Nixon
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Reader!!!???

Best Director
Ron Howard
David Fincher
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Stephen Daldry

Best Actor
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Richard Jenkins
Mickey Rourke

Best Actress
Angelina Jolie
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Kate Winslet - FOR THE READER!!??

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin
Heath Ledger
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Robert Downey jr.
Michael Shannon!!!???

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz
Taraji P. Henson
Amy Adams
Viola Davis
Marisa Tomei

Best Original Screenplay
Wall-E
Frozen River
Happy Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader

Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Changeling

Best Art Direction
The Dark Knight
Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Changeling

Best Costume Design
Australia
Milk
The Duchess
Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road

Editing
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button

Makeup
The Dark Knight
Benjamin Button
Hellboy II

Score
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Milk
Defiance
Benjamin Button

Song
Wall-E
Slumdog Millionaire Jai ho
Slumdog Millionaire O Saya
(NO SPRINGSTEEN!!!)

Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button
Wall-E
Wanted

Visual Effects
The Dark Knight
Benjamin Button
Iron Man

Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wanted
Wall-E
Slumdog Millionaire


Benjamin Button - 13 nominations
The Dark Knight - 8 nominations (And not Best Picture or Director, Shennanigans!)
Slumdog Millionaire - 8 nominations
Milk - 7 nominations
The Reader - 5 nominations
Frost/Nixon - 5 nominations
Wall-E - 5 nominations (amazing for an animated film and no Best Picture, Shennanigans!)

Anatomy of an Upset: Precedented Comebacks

As we tick closer and closer to nomination (and inauguration) Tuesday, The big 5 seem locked into place, but there's always something lingering in the back of our heads: It's not going to go down the line is it? Of course it has been in the past. The past two years Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and Dreamgirls have all been upset, but in 2006 the guild concensus films were all affirmed with nods. Did we have the same inkling that year? I can tell you that we did. The question was: will Munich or Capote be left out and would it be replaced with Walk the Line, King Kong, or Cinderella Man? It was actually a rare prognosticator that picked the actual slate because we all thought: "There has to be an upset!" There didn't and this year there doesn't either.



In order to predict wether there will be an upset, one must have reason. Reasons are obvious in hindsight, but when applied beforehand prove problematic. One must look for a similar film in a similar circumstance in order to determine if a particular film has a chance. In Contention ran a poll of likely contenders for the upset prize and listed: Wall-E, Doubt, The Wrestler, The Reader, and Gran Torino. I added Revolutionary Road to this list as it is the only other film I could see surprising. Then I looked for films that fit this profile. I'll start with the films with the weakest case.



Gran Torino
Dark Horse rating: 2 (out of 10)
Precedent: Letters from Iwo Jima

This is as simple as Clint Eastwood and the Academy's love affair with him. I like Gran Torino and think that its story is moving and will play well with Clint's septegenarain set. However, I'm not sold on this link. Eastwood has had a hard time getting best actor nomination, clearly the films strongest case for Oscar. I think he's good for a nomination, but the film itself is not a true contender. The small scope, tiny cast of unknowns, and overall low production value don't help its chances. There is no film of this type (that I could find) that came from behind and surprised. If so, it would be the ultimate love letter to Clint, but I wouldn't bet on it.


The Reader
Dark Horse Rating: 4 (out of 10)
Precedent: The Accidental Tourist

When The Reader's two beloved and acclaimed producers died, they left quite a mess in terms of campaigning. Subsequently The Reader has not consistently appeared in Awards talk, but does pop up every now and again. Mostly the talk is of the criminally overlooked Ms. Winslet's performance. Besides that, The Reader has a Globe nomination for best picture and a USC scripter nomination. This resume is eerily similar to that of The Accidental Tourist. It has nothing else in common with the William Hurt and Geena Davis film, except the general awards portfolio to this point: Ignored by the Globes, on the awards periphery, strong supporting performance, awards-friendly cast. More a statement that such a head scratcher is possible.


Revolutionary Road
Dark Horse Rating: 5 (out of 10)
Precedent: Elizabeth

Again, the films do not have a whole lot in common. One is literary, the other historical. One has an enormously famous cast while the other was a cast of unknowns (at the time). But they do have in common the idea that a Golden Globe nomination can be enough to gain a nomination. They also have a very strong and visible female performance as a showcase. It also reminds me of Atonement's nomination last year. Revolutionary Road might be a film that appeals to the right demographic to slip in where it didn't elsewhere.


Doubt
Dark Horse Rating: 7 (out of 10)
Precedent: The Dresser

Doubt has much in common with The Dresser in scale. They're both chamber pieces, neither are considered to be exceptionally well-directed, and both rely on the strength of their acting. Obviously they diverge in theme, and also in the prestige of their cast, but a higher profile cast should only give Doubt an advantage that The Dresser did not enjoy. The Dresser also did not enjoy any fanfare before nominations were announced, much like Doubt which has received very little. The similarities are there, the question is: will the voters travel in the same pattern as they did in 83?


The Wrestler
Dark Horse Rating: 8 (out of 10)
Precedent: My Left Foot

While The Wrestler and My Left Foot share little in common thematically, they both have a stellar and memorable performance at their core. Day-Lewis' performance was a breakthrough while Rourke's is a comeback, but they both make their respective films and may elevate them in the eyes of voters.

Consider this as well: Rourke is the odds on favorite to win the award. Over the past 10 oscars, only 2 winners of Best Actor didn't come from a Best Picture nominee (Forrest Whitaker, Denzel Washington). So it happens, but it's rare. Something to consider.


Wall-E
Dark Horse Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Precedent: Several

I've made it no secret that I love this film and would love to see it nominated, but I actually quite like its chances. Here are some of the reasons.

The separate category for animated film is problematic, but the fairly recent nominations of Life Is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon despite a foreign film category for which they were both elligible proves that this is not an insuperable barrier.

The obvious precedent Beauty and the Beast proves that an animated film has been and can be nominated if it is the right film at the right time.

And the Strongest Precedent is:

BABE - A child focused, environmentally conscious film about a scrappy hero who transcends his given station and its barriers in order to make the world (or the farm) a better place. Sound familiar?

Babe had critical support, much as Wall-E has but had little to no show of support from the guilds before the nominations were announced.

And let's get on to the fact that all of the current precursors have ruled Wall-E out of the competition so far. It hasn't been nominated for the Globes Best Comedy because it can only be nominated in the animated section. Because it is an animated film, the acting, direction, (here's where it gets ridiculous) WRITING and PRODUCING cannot be nominated for the main award. Inexplicable as it is, the Oscars will be Wall-E's first true test against the rest of this Best Picture field. We'll find out in a couple of days, but I wouldn't count him out by any stretch of the imagination.

5 non-contenders that deserve Best Supporting Actress more than Freida Pinto

The BAFTAs have decided that their love for Slumdog Millionaire is more important than any longstanding credibility they once had and nominated Freida Pinto for Best Supporting Actress. This hearkens back to the days of the late 80s/early 90s whenn you had to be in one of 8 films to be nominated for anything (I love Holly Hunter, but The Firm? Joan Cusack for Working Girl?). The past few years have shown a loosening of the field allowing great performances from other movies to compete. Now, with ratings sagging, AMPAS might be tempted to allow Slumdog Millionaire the status of juggernaut. This would be a mistake.

In terms of her performance I would rank it somewhere around Liv Tyler's performance in The Incredible Hulk; okay, not remotely oscar worthy. I would like to offer five alternatives, beyond the obvious. The five current favorites, Rosmarie DeWitt, Debra Winger, Marisa Tomei, Vera Farmiga, Taraji P. Henson... we all know about them. But no one is bandying about these names. Granted some of them are silly, but all of them far outclass the beautiful but two dimensional Ms. Pinto.

#5 Cate Blanchett - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Before you kill me for even mentioning this film, may I ask you to think back on the challenges of the roll she had. Her accent is perfect, her physicality is memorable, and even in the high camp moments she can almost make you believe she can read minds. It's not her fault the CGI looked shitty. It's not her fault the plot was preposterous and not satisfying. This film actually did great business at the box office and would certainly add some viewers to the oscar telecast. What Cate did was actually quite excellent and far more difficult than anything Freida Pinto had to do.

#4 Gwyneth Paltrow - Iron Man

Or how about another very good performance in a very popular movie. Paltrow and Downey jr. had wonderful dialogue and chemistry and that dynamic was one of the most enjoyable things about a very enjoyable film. Sure the "reality" of the film is preposterous, but not that much more preposterous than Slumdog, and Paltrow had some more difficult moments, and different layers to play. I wouldn't nominate Paltrow personally, but she's leagues ahead of Pinto.

#3 Lina Leanderson - Let the Right One In

Now I'm starting to get serious. Leanderson wouldn't add viewers but it'd be a nice thing for fans of this excellent film to actually see it represented in some way (since the foreign film category is the worst joke in history) and it's pretty well deserved. For such a young actress Lina Leanderson really gets across the agony of this poor vampire who has suffered with her affliction for centuries. We see her inherent darkness, her tortured empathy, and her resignation to the horrific necessities she lives with. I'm surprised Leanderson hasn't received more buzz.

#2 Hiam Abass - The Visitor

With all the accolades heaped upon Jenkins, I'm surprised Abass's vital character has been left off the short list. Her grace, dignity, and humor are all on display and her scenes with Jenkins are all played at just the right tone. It'd be a great surprise nod and a well deserved one.

#1 Tanvi Ganesh Lonkar - Slumdog Millionaire

And if the academy is absolutley sold on a Slumdog Juggernaut, how about rewarding the actress that had the lone challenging scene for an actress in the entire film. She's not on the screen for long (neither is Pinto) but the scene involving the younger Latika with Jamal and his brother is very memorable and climactic. Lonkar's incarnation of Latika at least does something other than answer a cell phone.

So there it is 5 viable other options besides the myriad options already available to you. Don't let me down Academy!

Slumdog, Winslet sweep at Globes

Slumdog Millionaire got a huge boost from last nights golden globes, netting them five total awards (a huge amount for the Globes, espescially with no acting accolades). Despite the Globes recent troubles picking winners (they haven't picked a Best Picture winner since 2003), this can only be considered a good omen for its Best Picture prospects.

And Kate Winslet appears as though she will be annointed on Oscar Sunday in one of the two categories for which she receives a nomination. The voters seemed so superstitious about Kate not winning one, enough of them voted for her in both categories to give her two acting awards last night. It's an unprecedented feat and a sign that Oscar has decided to take the Deborah Kerr label off of Ms. Winslet this year. But in what category? More on that later in the week.

Heath Ledger also won a posthumous award and the response among the oscar voters was phenomenal. It looks like a lock that he will win the first posthumous oscar since Conrad Hall in 2002 and the first posthumous acting oscar since Peter Finch for Network.


Here is a list of the Winners

BPD: Slumdog Millionaire
BPC: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Dir: Danny Boyle
BAC:Colin Farrel - In Bruges
BAD: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
BAsC: Sally Hawkins - Happy Go-Lucky
BAsD: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
BSA: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
BSAs:Kate Winslet - The Reader